Countries: Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad, Côte d'Ivoire, Mali, Niger, Nigeria, Togo Source: Famine Early Warning System Network Please refer to the attached file. Key Messages Emergency (IPC Phase 4)…
What the source says
Countries: Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad, Côte d'Ivoire, Mali, Niger, Nigeria, Togo
Source: Famine Early Warning System Network
Please refer to the attached file.
Key Messages
Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes are expected in Ménaka, Mali, from June to September, and in Kidal and inaccessible areas of northeast Nigeria, including the Abadam, Bama, Guzamala, and Marte local government areas (LGAs), from June to January 2027. Escalating conflict is expected to drive further population displacement, disrupt livelihoods, and constrain access to markets and agricultural land, while persistently high staple food prices will continue to limit household food access. From October, the upcoming harvests and the availability of wild products will relatively improve access to food in Ménaka and slightly decrease households’ food consumption deficits, resulting in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes.
Crisis! (IPC Phase 3!) outcomes are expected in eastern provinces of Chad from June to January 2027. The protracted conflict in Sudan is driving the influx of Sudanese refugees and Chadian returnees who lost their livelihood assets, placing pressure on host communities’ income and food sources. Due to limited income-earning opportunities, refugees are relying heavily on humanitarian food assistance. In Karo-Peli, Burkina Faso, Crisis! (IPC Phase 3!) outcomes are expected from June to September as limited income is insufficient to purchase food, resulting in food consumption deficits. Poor households are relying on food assistance to cover their food consumption needs.
From June to September, widespread Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected across the region as conflict persists in affected areas, while households in relatively calm areas deplete their food stocks and become increasingly reliant on market purchases. From October onwards, harvests will likely increase food availability and consumption in relatively calm areas, resulting in Stressed (IPC Phase 2), while in conflict-affected areas, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected to persist.
Conflict is the main driver of acute food insecurity in the region, particularly in the Sahel. Conflict levels are expected to remain elevated and spill over to the northern parts of the coastal countries, including Benin, Côte d’Ivoire, and Togo. From January to June 2026, the region recorded 9,856 conflict events (41 percent in Nigeria and 27 percent in Cameroon). The Liptako-Gourma region — Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso — along with the Lake Chad Basin and the Northwest and Southwest regions of Cameroon, remain the epicenters of these conflicts involving armed groups. These conflicts are driving population displacement and disrupting livelihoods by limiting access to farmland, restricting market access and cross-border trade, and reducing income-generating opportunities. Across the region, 11 million people are forcibly displaced, including 3 million refugees and 8 million internally displaced persons.
The 2026 rainy season is showing a mixed start in the Sahel, with rainfall deficits in central Mali, eastern Chad, and northeastern Central African Republic, while above-normal rainfall is expected in the central Sahel, Niger, and eastern parts of Burkina Faso**.** The delays in the onset of rains range from 10 to 30 days in Central Mali, southern Burkina Faso, northern Côte d’Ivoire, and eastern Chad. These delays will likely affect the planting season in these areas and the availability of agricultural labor opportunities, which are the main sources of income for poor households during the lean period. Above-normal rainfall was observed in the bimodal south of the region.
Overall, market supplies across the region are average due to favorable harvests in 2025/26, the impacts of trade bans imposed by national governments, and weakened demand. The export of cereals is banned in Chad, Niger, Mali, Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Ghana, and Guinea. Additionally, Niger and Burkina Faso banned livestock exports, disrupting cross-border trade, as the Sahel countries are suppliers of legumes and livestock to the coastal countries. These measures are driving atypically seasonal low staple food prices across the region, except in conflict-affected areas, where prices are above average. Low cereal prices are constraining the incomes of households that depend on crop sales.
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